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Predictions and promises monitor

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Authors
400
Predictions
2546
Verified
913
Came true
65%
Complex
54%
Confident
48%
Predictions Author Ranking
All Expected Expected soon New results

Sergey Fursa

The BRICS idea just doesn’t work — it’s impossible. Their currencies are non-convertible, there’s no trust, and of course, there will be no BRICS currency.
Expected
#BRICS
ru → en

Vladislav Ivanov

Artificial intelligence does not possess qualities such as compassion, for example. Therefore, it is impossible to fully replace judges with artificial intelligence.
Expected
#Science and technology #Russia
ru → en

Alfred Koch

The government that will be formed by Merz is still to the left of the country’s overall trend, primarily because of the firewall built between the CDU/CSU and the AfD, which prevents them from forming a coalition. I don’t think there’s much good in that. I believe it will end with the AfD simply gaining even more votes in the next election.
Expected
#Germany
ru → en

Ian Matveev

As for Sloviansk and Kramatorsk — definitely not, in my opinion. In response to the question: "Can Russia occupy Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, or at least one of these cities this year?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Evgeny Gontmakher

I think that this confrontation between China and the United States will most likely end with yet another phone call between Trump and Xi Jinping, during which they will probably agree on some kind of truce in this trade war — in terms of the exchange of tariff blows — and begin negotiations. They’ll create some large working groups on both sides and start talks on how things should really be structured, and eventually, this will end in a compromise. This could go on for several months, of course, but China will, in some sense, acknowledge that the U.S. has a point.
Expected
#USA #China #Economy
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

I think that even if it’s simply Putin’s natural death and, as a result, his personal power disappears, but one of his supporters comes to power, he will still be just a little better than Putin — that’s how it seems to me. Why? Because Russia will somehow need to be rebuilt economically, and for that, it will be necessary to get out from under the sanctions... In response to the question: "After Putin's death, will someone just like him take over, or someone more reasonable?"
Expected
#Russia #Putin
ru → en

Vladimir Surdin

Let the viewers who are watching and listening to us today remember the year 2035 — the year when a human will leave their footprint on the surface of Mars. Thirty-five. That’s my prediction.
Expected
#Space #Science and technology
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

First of all, we’re supposed to have a meeting already in April. But in April, to be honest, I don’t expect the rate to be lowered. The Central Bank of Russia will not lower the key interest rate in April.
Expected
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

There’s a funny story — because of Trump’s tariffs, the U.S. trade balance won’t improve, but will actually worsen. That’s because of the global economic slowdown, falling oil prices, and the shutdown of oil production facilities in the U.S., which is an important part of American exports. They’ll be exporting less oil, which means their trade balance will get worse. In other words, Trump’s actions will lead to the exact opposite result.
Expected
#USA #Economy #Trump
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

The Iran issue ranks second. On Trump’s scale, I would give it a weight of 3 out of 10. We know that this issue will be resolved, and very quickly. The nuclear program will be stopped through negotiations.
Expected
#Iran #USA #Trump
ru → en

Abbas Gallyamov

I think Trump definitely won’t object to that... I can’t imagine Trump refusing to sell weapons. In response to the remark: "Ukraine is no longer asking for aid, but wants to buy weapons, and the Europeans are providing money for that."
Expected
#Ukraine #USA #Trump #Europe #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Tatyana Popova

Ukraine is no longer asking for aid, but wants to buy weapons, and the Europeans are providing money for that... It seems to me that, in the end, Trump will respond positively to the proposal.
Expected
#Ukraine #USA #Trump #Europe #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Leonid Shvets

I think Zelensky won’t appear in Washington anytime soon. Svyrydenko will go there, I don’t know, everyone will be going — except Zelensky.
Expected
#Zelensky #Ukraine #USA
ru → en

Mikhail Krutikhin

Economic sanctions don’t work, because over 25 years Putin has caused so much damage to the Russian economy that any new economic measures would simply be a continuation of Putin’s own policies. That doesn’t stop the war. The only thing that can stop the war is his defeat on the battlefield.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Gennady Medetsky

What we’re seeing now makes it absolutely clear that there will be no quick truce, no 30-day pause like some were expecting from this deal on Ukraine. And there’s one simple reason for that: the advantage Russia currently holds on the front lines — that’s undeniable, everyone knows it — is practically Putin’s only trump card in the negotiations.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Gennady Medetsky

I think that within the next week or two to three weeks, we should see a resolution to the U.S.–China trade war, because this isn’t really about money.
Expected
#USA #China #Economy
ru → en

Olga Romanova

Breivik is being held in a regular prison... Yes, he will remain in prison — I think he’ll spend his whole life there. I don’t think they’ll release him after 23 years.
Expected
#Norway
ru → en

Ramis Yunus

I can say this publicly—my opinion is that there definitely won’t be a full-scale war, nothing like "Desert Storm," nothing like what happened in Iraq with Saddam Hussein. That’s not going to happen. But a targeted strike on nuclear facilities... that would actually be good for him (Trump). A full-scale war in the Middle East involving the U.S. and Iran won’t happen, but targeted strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities are possible.
Expected
#Iran #USA #Middle East #Trump
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

The fate of this war will not be decided at the negotiating table. And there is no chance of ending this war today until the Russian occupation army is destroyed, as long as Putin remains in the Kremlin. As long as Putin is in the Kremlin, the war will not stop.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin
ru → en

Yevgenia Albats

It seems absolutely clear to me that there will be no repetition of the Stalinist model in post-Putin Russia. That doesn’t mean there will be liberals, I repeat. Most likely, it will be some kind of KGB-style junta with no legitimacy. And in that sense, it may become even more repressive for a certain period of time. After Putin’s departure, power in Russia is more likely to be taken by a "KGB-style junta" rather than a liberal democracy.
Expected
#Russia #Putin
ru → en

Oleksiy Arestovych

75 to 25. A 75% chance that the campaign will continue, the war will go on; and a 25% chance that Trump will achieve some sort of truce. In response to the question: "If nothing changes, what problems are we facing this summer?"
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Over these 4 years, if Trump fails to achieve peaceful negotiations with Russia and Iran, then by the end of his term he might resort to war with Iran, for example.
Expected
#USA #Iran #Trump
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Just yesterday, Kyiv, through Zelensky’s statement, declared that it would never agree to the loss of Crimea and other territories that were part of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic. Clearly, these are risky assets. It’s like trying to extract resources in a potential war zone. That’s why the Americans won’t invest there. They will leave this highly risky line of engagement to the Europeans. The U.S. will not be extracting resources on Ukrainian territory.
Expected
#Ukraine #USA #Europe
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

I believe that unfortunately, Ukraine will be forced to accept the arrangement that will be agreed upon in negotiations mediated by Kirill Dmitriev and Steve Utkoff, and which will be finalized during a personal meeting between Presidents Putin and Trump. And Ukraine’s only trump card in this situation is military aid from Europe.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Russia #Putin #Trump
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

Back in the summer of last year, I said that we would still see Trump in Tehran. And that’s most likely how it will be — just like we saw him meeting with Kim Jong Un.
Expected
#Trump #Iran #USA
ru → en

Maksim Shevchenko

They will sign an agreement with China sooner or later. There will be no war with China. And Chinese rare earth metals will continue to flow to America, just like they do now. There will be no war between the U.S. and China.
Expected
#USA #China
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Many say that the Taurus missiles have a range of 500 km. But I am absolutely sure that even if Merz manages to get the Bundestag’s approval for supplying Taurus missiles to Ukraine, they will deliver a special limited version with a range of no more than 300 km, because there is an agreement between states that missiles with a range over 300 km cannot be supplied to anyone.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Germany #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Ruslan Leviev

Kharkiv, in general, is not threatened by ground combat operations in the coming years. Yes, it has been, is, and will remain under shelling. Missiles, Shaheds, and artillery shells will keep hitting there. But as for actual ground fighting — no, Kharkiv is not facing that in the near future.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Vladimir Milov

In Serbia, we can see that the wave of public discontent over some sort of retrospective of different years is growing, and in the end, it will bring Vučić down. I became 100% convinced of that when I saw the protests.
Expected
#Serbia
ru → en

Tikhon Dzyadko

I'm hosting the morning broadcast tomorrow. I'm absolutely convinced that by the time of the morning show on Dozhd, there will be some comment from Trump about the strike on the city of Sumy. For some reason, I feel that, given his media activity and the number of meetings he has with journalists, someone will ask him about it — we'll see how he responds.
Completely came true
#Trump #USA #Ukraine #War in Ukraine
ru → en

Dmitry Gordon

I think it will die down. Trump's main goal is a tariff war with China and, more broadly, a struggle with China for global hegemony. In response to the question: "A question about the global tariff war. Do you think it will quiet down and fade away, or are we in for a second round?"
Expected
#Economy #USA #Trump
ru → en

Vitaly Portnikov

This is the Navalny syndrome. These people still see Russian citizens as those who could one day become their potential voters — something these Russian citizens will never be to them. They simply can’t understand that their political contract with Russia was broken long ago and will never be restored... They will never have positions, parliamentary mandates, or the opportunity to change this country within their physical lifetime. Talking about the Russian opposition in exile.
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Vitaly Portnikov

We’re generally talking about this war as something prolonged over time. I honestly don’t see any prospects for the Russo-Ukrainian war to end in the foreseeable future.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Igor Aizenberg

He could be impeached for that. But I don’t think there will be enough Republican senators in the Senate to reach 67% of the votes for his removal. So he will remain president, and the next election will be in November 2028. Talking about Trump.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Igor Aizenberg

I don't think he would ever say out loud that he sees Russia as an adversary, or that Putin is a war criminal. That’s completely out of the question. Trump
Expected
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

Trump is serving his second term in presidential office, a second term in office. He won’t be president a third time... I’m sure that Trump won’t run for a third term.
Expected
#Trump #USA #Elections
ru → en

Win/Win

Not even the Minister of Economy went from Ukraine to the U.S. for negotiations on the resource deal — the highest-ranking official there is Deputy Minister Kachka. No one knows who that is. The Ukrainians once again brought a proposal the Americans are seeing for the first time. There will be no deal. Trump, you've been misled.
Expected
#Ukraine #USA #Economy #Trump
ru → en

Vyacheslav Maltsev

Trump will never go to war with China. He won't even go to war with Iran, believe me. The most he’s capable of is fighting the Houthis. Response to the question: "Slava, what do you think, will Trump give the green light for a ground operation against China?"
Expected
#USA #Iran #China #Trump
ru → en

Vyacheslav Maltsev

No, of course not. In response to the question: "Slava, what do you think — will your buddy Volodin be jailed?"
Expected
#Russia
ru → en

Yevgeny Kiselyov

For some reason, I don’t believe that Trump’s lost patience will necessarily turn into a flow of weapons suddenly pouring from across the ocean into Europe and then into Ukraine. And I also find it hard to believe that he’ll impose any “from-hell” sanctions against Putin. It seems to me that he’ll simply lose interest in this recently obsessive idea of his — to achieve a ceasefire on the Ukrainian front as quickly as possible. I think he’ll just throw up his hands and walk away.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Putin #Russia #USA #Ukraine
ru → en

Sergey Grabskiy

We all understand perfectly well that no matter how much Donald Trump may wish it, if certain objectives are not achieved — and they won’t be — we can say this: until May 9th, there’s no point in even opening our mouths or thinking that any kind of ceasefire might happen.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Sergey Grabskiy

Therefore, it's not appropriate to say that we are seriously considering the possibility of an offensive in the Sumy or Kharkiv direction today or in the near future. Speaking about a potential Russian offensive.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Victor Shenderovich

Now it's too late for him to drink Borjomi. Stepping down from power means an immediate trial, in the best-case scenario — a trial, if he even lives to see it. About Putin.
Expected
#Putin #Russia
ru → en

Igor Lipsitz

These past few days I’ve had a disturbing feeling that we might actually be witnessing the decline of America. If all of this keeps going the way it is, the system will enter such turbulence that parts will start to fall off. Then some states will start saying they need to secede, because it’s unclear how to keep living within this overall system — they’ll feel the need to save themselves. By "all of this" is meant Trump's policy, which is unpredictable for the markets and finance.
Expected
#USA
ru → en

Stepan Demura

If industrial production in the U.S. increases its share of GDP by 5 percent. But that will never happen.
Expected
#USA #Economy
ru → en

Stepan Demura

Unfortunately, the war will continue. It seems that now there will be a war. Not a special military operation, but a war in the true sense.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia
ru → en

Mark Feygin

Why is Whitkoff going everywhere? Now he’s gone to Iran. They’ll come to an agreement on the money. But the issue of Iran’s nuclear program won’t be resolved. That’s my prediction.
Expected
#Iran #Nuclear weapons #USA
ru → en

Vyacheslav Maltsev

A war between the U.S. and Iran would benefit China the most... And if it happens — mark my words — a nuclear strike on the U.S. will be inevitable; it will definitely happen. And it doesn’t really matter who launches it — it could be Russia, or someone else. China will try to pull everyone into the war.
Expected
#USA #Iran #China
ru → en

Vladimir Surdin

American scientists even came up with a project: to use a large meteorite crater as a radio telescope dish by covering it with wires — essentially creating a reflective surface and turning it into a natural radio telescope. This would require such enormous costs and effort that, for now, the project is considered something for the distant future. But Chinese astronomers have decided to do it now — within the next 7 to 10 years. They’re talking about five years. I looked at the scale of the project and realized that it’s unlikely to be completed in less than 10 years.
Expected
#Space #Science and technology #China
ru → en

Tatiana Mikhailova

Given that OPEC+ isn’t planning to cut production — in fact, they’re planning to increase it — the pressure is downward. I don’t think it will bounce back to the level it was at under the Trump presidency, no. In response to the question: "I understand that it’s impossible to predict oil prices, but still — what trend would you point to right now?"
Expected
#Oil #Economy
ru → en

Bogdan Bakaleyko

Regarding China — and still, if they go for it (though it's hard for me to believe), if they take that step and make their yuan a bit or significantly stronger and higher.
Expected
#Yuan #China
ru → en

Win/Win

What does Trump want from China, raising tariffs on it every day? He’ll lower them eventually anyway.
Expected
#Trump #USA #China #Economy
ru → en

Bogdan Bakaleyko

I get the impression that, in the end, Donald Trump will come to an agreement and won’t continue to pressure the world.
Expected
#Trump #USA
ru → en

Leonid Ivashov

They won’t go to war with Taiwan just to gain control over the chip industry and so on. They’ll resolve this issue peacefully. Even though they’re lagging behind in silicon-based technologies, they won’t start a war over Taiwan. Chinese wisdom is still present there. Ours has vanished into eternity, but theirs — the Confucian approach — is still alive in China. That’s why I don’t believe China will go to war.
Expected
#China #Taiwan
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

If this expulsion of China from the classroom by teacher Trump leads to increased trade between the U.S. and Russia, then trade turnover between Russia and the U.S. should skyrocket. But I think you understand that this won’t happen. Right now, China sells — or used to sell before the introduction of those 125% tariffs — iPhones to the U.S. So what now? Is China supposed to sell iPhones to Russia, and Russia to the U.S.? That’s absurd. It’s not going to happen.
Expected
#Russia #China #USA #Economy
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

The Baltic states are undoubtedly a risk zone, but direct aggression will most likely occur only after one version or another of the war against Ukraine has played out. Whether Putin will be in a position to attack anyone after this war — or whether he’ll even still be around — is a rhetorical question, because I don’t have an answer to it. If Putin does attack the Baltic states, it will be after the war against Ukraine is over.
Expected
#Putin #Russia #Estonia #Latvia #Lithuania
ru → en

Igor Yakovenko

The likelihood that this coalition will deploy its armed contingents to Ukrainian territory, in my view, is zero. Nevertheless, the leaders of European countries continue to actively discuss it.
Expected
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Europe
ru → en

Konstantin Borovoy

I’d give Putin five years, no more. Then maybe a gray zone — another five years. Ten years total. By that time, he’ll probably die anyway.
Expected
#Putin #Russia
ru → en