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Xi Jinping fully understands that if he miraculously manages to seize Taiwan, then within a few months Japan will become a nuclear power, and so will South Korea.
#Japan #Taiwan #China #South Korea

America itself made China competitive by moving all operations there, relying solely on cheap labor. Now, if it removes this pillar, we’ll see whether the cheap labor of not-very-free people can change anything. My position is no. They will lose to America, and they will fall behind much more significantly than one might imagine.
#USA #China #Economy

The Pope is 69 years old. Therefore, it’s highly likely that he will remain Pope for 20–25 years. That’s a very long time for the modern world. A whole new era has begun in the Catholic Church.

I tend to believe that there won’t be a deliberate attempt to strike during the parade. But it cannot be ruled out. Talking about possible Ukrainian attempts to strike the May 9 parade in Moscow.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

Two major powers, one with a population of 1.5 billion people, the other with a population of 220 million people, and they are on the brink of war. However, many experts — and I agree with them — tend to believe that there will not be a serious war. The sides will exchange airstrikes, they already have, and afterward there will be a pause and negotiations will begin. India may consider itself satisfied, or maybe not, and Pakistan will respond.
#India #Pakistan

India and Pakistan: 1. They carried out strikes against each other — around 10 strikes each, with approximately 10–30 casualties on each side. 2. There is little global concern. 3. Even though they each have about 170 nuclear warheads. 4. It is believed they will exchange another one or two rounds of strikes, gradually de-escalating, and then it will all calm down. 5. This reflects the hatred between Hindus and Muslims. 6. And the unresolved territorial issue. 7. China supports Pakistan. 8. The USA, Britain, and Israel support India. 9. Islamic countries, including Turkey, support Pakistan. 10. Russia is neutral, but India has closer relations with Russia than Pakistan does. 11. The forecast: another 20 or so people may be killed, and then things will settle down.
#India #Pakistan

Zero. In response to the question: “Some time ago, people were saying that it would all end because the front would collapse, the front would crumble, and we would take a couple of regions in no time. What are the chances that this will happen?” (That Ukraine’s front will collapse, Russia will break through, and seize more regions)
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Timur Ivanov hasn’t been jailed yet. I’m sure about him — he’ll get a shorter sentence than Popov, you’ll see.
#Russia

Everyone was writing about Putin, filming about Putin, talking about Putin... Everyone immediately started guessing: is this the one he’s picking as his successor? And look, Sobyanin talked to him for over half an hour — could it really be Sobyanin? I can say for sure: definitely not Sobyanin. Anyone but Sobyanin.
#Russia #Putin

I think this is unlikely. I don’t see any reasons for this to start happening. I actually think it will be quite the opposite. In response to the question: “In your view, under Putin as president, are any steps toward liberalization, holding certain elections, or at least simulating them possible?”
#Russia #Putin

The meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump is being prepared and will take place before the end of May. Depending on the circumstances… those will be the topics discussed. It’s definitely not going to be like the Vatican on chairs.
#Putin #Trump #Russia #USA

I expect a devaluation of the ruble over the May holidays.
#Ruble #Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

I suspect, predicting, that the right-wing is likely facing defeat in the upcoming elections in Poland.
#Poland #Elections

No one will ban Alternative, of course — that’s impossible. In response to the question: “What do you think about the planned ban on Alternative — the German party?”
#Germany

No, they are not possible right now. But by 2029, when Vance’s position strengthens, they will become possible. My prediction is that nothing will happen before 2029. In response to the question: “Are direct negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow possible now?”
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

No, there will be no mobilization. There will be no mobilization. Mobilization is not needed. Because that would mean arming the people. And an armed people are dangerous, very dangerous. In response to the question: “Will there be a mobilization?” (in Russia)
#Russia #War in Ukraine

The more quality assets are replaced by all sorts of paper “wrappers,” the sooner a banking system crisis will occur. But the fact that it will shake this year, and we will see very powerful, sharp moves by the Central Bank to rescue and inject liquidity into the banking system — that’s definitely for this year, 2025.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

A huge number of Russian enterprises that benefit from the state’s monopoly protection — shielding them from competition — will lose their place under the sun. The most striking example is the Russian aircraft manufacturing corporation, which is trying to produce import-independent Superjets and MC-21s that are becoming heavy, fly short distances, and have inefficient engines. In global competition, they will lose. Such companies have no future.
#Russia #Economy #Economy of Russia

By the way, such intense purges will start this summer and fall within Putin’s ranks; the heads of propagandists will roll en masse, like mushrooms sprouting.
#Russia

Strangely enough, good. If everything had been going well for him, I think he wouldn’t be so determined to establish peace in Ukraine. Because now, achieving peace in Ukraine, against the backdrop of all his defeats and failures, has become a major motivator for him. I think he won’t be able to back away from this topic, so to speak. He’ll have to push for that peace. In response to the question: “Donald Trump has marked 100 days in office. What are your impressions of the American president’s time in power?”
#Trump #War in Ukraine #Ukraine #USA #Russia

Trump will also soon say, “We are at war,” and will impose a state of emergency. I’m not even joking. The White House is already discussing the issue of transitioning the U.S. to a state of emergency, which would allow Trump to lift all sorts of restrictions on his decisions and govern the country through presidential decrees.
#USA #Trump

SpaceX runs entirely on government money, and the Starships keep crashing — crashing again and again. In the foreseeable future, mark my words, the Starship rocket cannot be certified for human flights because he simply cannot make it safe.
#USA #Science and technology #Space

Elon Musk — just look at how quickly and how far he has driven his Tesla down. You’ve probably seen the numbers for the first quarter: falling sales, falling profits. The guy, through his stupidity, impulsiveness, and inability to manage, has crashed his own company. My prediction: Tesla won’t recover from this, it won’t bounce back.
#USA #Economy

As for nuclear weapons, I don’t think they will be used in the event of hostilities. The fact is, Pakistan understands that the moment it uses nuclear weapons, it will be wiped off the face of the earth... This is mutually assured destruction.
#Nuclear weapons #India #Pakistan

In my view, the likelihood of a military clash exists, and it may increase, but it will not escalate into a full-scale war... It could be a regional conflict. Regional means that in some border sectors there may be shelling, even intense shelling.
#India #Pakistan

He will start arresting political opponents. He’ll begin with city mayors. If they’ve already started arresting judges for protecting migrants, they will likely go after local and regional authorities as well. They’ll start arresting mayors too, under the banner of fighting migration. Then, possibly, they’ll even reach opposition Democratic state governors. Mark my words, something will happen soon. They will begin arresting their political opponents — most likely under a pretext similar to how Putin introduced anti-democratic measures at the start of his rule. Trump will arrest his political opponents.
#USA #Trump

Many are now writing that this week will be critical, that something will be decided in the coming days. It seems to me that, logically, they should at least sign a 30-day ceasefire. But of course, it's not guaranteed — I could be wrong.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Don't scare yourself with the Indo-Pakistani conflict. India and Pakistan have fought many times with each other... With a very high probability, this will be a series of border incidents, limited in scope to somewhere in Jammu and Kashmir, the disputed state.
#India #Pakistan

I am also confident that one day a monument to Novodvorskaya will be erected in Russia — the only dissident who fought for Russia’s true interests.
#Russia

A country called Palestine has never existed for even a single minute in the history of humanity, and it will not exist in the future either.
#Palestine #Gaza

The Central Bank will lower the rate at the next meeting, I believe not just to 20%, but even lower. In Russia.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

Let’s say inflation is above 15%, GDP drops by 1–1.5%, the budget is cut by 10%, and the standard of living declines. If we define that as a crisis, then the probability of it happening... in the second half of next year, the probability is around 15–20%. In response to the question: “How would you assess the probability of a crisis happening this year or next?”
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

Let’s say inflation is above 15%, GDP drops by 1–1.5%, the budget is cut by 10%, and the standard of living declines. If we define that as a crisis, then the probability of it happening this year is 0%, and in the second half of next year, the probability is around 15–20%. In response to the question: “How would you assess the probability of a crisis happening this year or next?”
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

And we’ll see a downward trend that will reach 15 percent by the New Year. Continuing from the previous statement: “The Central Bank will lower the rate at the next meeting, I believe not just to 20%, but even lower.”
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

Bank defaults will not be allowed. In Russia, in 2025.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

I don’t see any prospects of a serious banking crisis. Let’s wait until the end of the year and do another stream like this in January 2026. As for hyperinflation — I don’t think it will happen.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

For some reason, Trump is afraid of Putin. I think he won’t want to anger Putin with new sanctions... Imposing sanctions against Putin is not something Trump would do. He simply won’t.
#Trump #Putin #Russia #USA

As for Crimea, in my opinion, after 11 years of occupation, it is already clear that Crimea will never be internationally recognized as Russian territory. It will never happen. The only thing Russia can count on is the occasional whims of individual leaders.
#Ukraine #Russia

I still believe that two major figures dominate the political stage — Zelensky and Valerii Fedorovych Zaluzhnyi. And only one of them, not both, will run for president.
#Ukraine #Zelensky

Direct negotiations can only begin under a ceasefire. Between Russia and Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

And I think that the militarization of Europe — the increase in defense spending, if not up to 5% of GDP, then at least to 3.5% — will lead to certain shifts in this area, particularly to an increase in the retirement age.
#European Union

I think we can confidently predict that at the next meeting the rate will also remain unchanged, and this will continue until the end of the summer — I believe until around August. The Central Bank of Russia will not change the key rate until the end of summer.
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

Trump said: "I want to meet with Putin right away. The inauguration is now, and I want to meet with Putin immediately." And everyone was speculating whether he would meet with Putin or Zelensky first. I said they wouldn’t meet before summer. And now, my prediction just has one more month to hold.
#Trump #Putin #USA #Russia

So my prediction is that most likely America will not back out, will not withdraw from the process next week... And most likely, Trump will continue to maintain the role of mediator, even if his position shifts — he still won’t leave.
#War in Ukraine #USA #Trump #Ukraine #Russia

Whether the United States recognizes Crimea as part of Ukraine or not does not depend on Zelensky — it depends on the United States. And most likely, they will recognize Crimea as Russian.
#USA #Ukraine #Russia

I have absolutely no doubt that we will return to Russia.
#Russia

On Monday, Trump will impose maximum sanctions against more than 200 senior Ukrainian officials, including Zelensky himself.
#Ukraine #Trump #USA #Economy

My prediction was that the war would not end this year. I still hold the same opinion.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

As before, I still believe that the resources for continuing high-intensity combat operations are not unlimited for either side — neither for the aggressor, the Russian Federation, nor for the defending Ukraine. Therefore, I still maintain my opinion that in the first half of this year, a ceasefire agreement, under one scenario or another, will be reached.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

Right now, methods are being devised for how to formally take people’s deposits under government control without officially freezing them. They won’t take your money away, no. Instead, they’ll issue you a document stating that you own a large package of shares in newly privatized enterprises, and you are now a major portfolio holder of securities. This is the Cyprus model. There too, they didn’t take the money away; they simply forcibly converted it into bank shares. And you became a major shareholder in a bank that nobody needs, and the liquidity of your shares is practically zero. I think this is more likely. I think this is most likely the scheme I’m describing — the conversion of your deposits into something highly illiquid.
#Economy of Russia #Economy #Russia

Putin will inevitably open up military contracts for women at some point, because he doesn’t even have enough forces — not to conquer foreign territories, but just to contain Ukraine.
#Russia #Putin #War in Ukraine

And if Trump pulls out and the situation in Ukraine sharply deteriorates militarily — and he realizes that this deterioration is giving him the image of a weak president — then I assure you, he’ll come right back and start defending that image. If these negotiations fail, he’ll keep going in circles: pulled out, came back; pulled out, came back. “Pulls out” here refers to withdrawing from negotiations over the war in Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Trump #Ukraine #Russia #USA

I think tomorrow the rate will be lowered to 20%, but no one will feel any better because of it :(
#Economy of Russia #Russia #Economy

Ukraine is eager to claim that after Ukraine, Putin will go after Europe — Germany, Finland, the Baltic states. That’s not the case.
#Russia #Europe #Ukraine #Putin

Here’s my prediction — Witkoff will be in prison after Trump’s term ends. Trump won’t be, but Witkoff will be behind bars for decades. If we live long enough, we’ll see it with our own eyes.
#USA

It will definitely happen, it will definitely happen! In response to the question: "We need your prediction — will there be a war between India and Pakistan?"
#India #Pakistan

Pete Hegseth is about to lose his position any day now. Remember this tweet. Well, maybe not literally any day — but soon, Pete Hegseth will no longer be at the head of the Pentagon.
#USA

Putin will not agree to any conditions that would allow Ukraine to no longer fear a military invasion. He would rather give up certain settlements than agree to any security guarantees for Ukraine.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia #Putin

I think he will run for re-election — for him, it’s almost a matter of life and death. The Ukrainian political landscape is quite toxic for former presidents. I believe that a lot could be held against Volodymyr Zelensky after the war ends.
#Zelensky #Ukraine #Elections

When it comes to Crimea, which clearly isn’t returning to Ukraine within the next decade.
#War in Ukraine #Ukraine #Russia

So, they won’t be lifted precisely because Crimea will not be recognized as Russian. Sanctions on Russia will not be lifted.
#Russia #European Union #Economy of Russia #Economy

We’re looking at the Russian economy. And we’re confident that by fall or winter, due to objective economic reasons, we will pressure Russia into making serious concessions. No four regions, no official recognition of Crimea or other occupied territories. A ceasefire along the line of contact, an international monitoring contingent. No reduction of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, no reduction of missiles or aircraft, no adoption of laws favorable to Russia. Nothing. That’s what we will push them to — firmly and definitively — by fall or winter.
#War in Ukraine #Russia #Ukraine

No, I don’t think that’s possible. I’m not sure about the U.S., but the European Union and the United Kingdom definitely have no intention of lifting any sanctions. And overall, this whole idea of a truce seems like a fabrication to me. In response to the question: "Mr. Browder, do you think the West might lift some sanctions on Russia in the foreseeable future?"
#Russia #European Union #Economy

If Bastion starts getting blocked, a lot on the Internet will begin to go down. I don’t think it’s worth the trouble. That’s why I believe Bastion will keep working for a long time. It won’t be blocked.
#Internet #Censorship #Russia